The gold price continued to rise in Q3, breaking through key milestones to set new all-time highs.
Much like the first half of the year, the yellow metal was supported by ongoing factors like central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty caused by US trade and tariff policies.
And it wasn’t just the price of gold that soared — higher margins and a more positive outlook for the sector helped drive increases in gold stocks. Read on for a look at gold’s Q3 activity and the outlook for Q4.
What happened to the gold price in Q3?
Gold has gained nearly US$1,400 since starting the year at US$2,658 per ounce on January 2.
By the beginning of Q3, gold had climbed to US$3,338.86, and it remained rangebound at that level for most of July and August. However, it climbed above the US$3,400 mark on July 22 and then again on August 6.
Gold price, July 9 to October 10, 2025.
The price started to gain traction at the end of August, after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a change in policy during his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. By September 2, the gold price had broken through US$3,500 for the first time, and by September 8 it had climbed above US$3,600.
As the month wore on, gold continued its unprecedented climb. It broke through US$3,700 on September 22, US$3,800 on September 29 and reached its quarterly high of US$3,858.41 on September 30.
The price continued on its upward trajectory as the fourth quarter began, rising above US$3,900 on October 6, and finally setting a new record high of US$4,040.42 on October 8.
What’s driving gold demand?
Although there was a dip in central bank gold purchases in July, with just 10 metric tons added to reserves, the World Gold Council (WGC) reported that the buying trend that has developed over the past few years remains firm.
In August, central banks once again increased their gold acquisitions, purchasing a total of 19 metric tons. Overall, central banks bought 415 metric tons of gold in H1, bringing the 2025 total to 444 metric tons as of the end of August.
Although it appeared to pause its gold buying in August, the National Bank of Poland has been the top purchaser of gold in 2025, adding 67 metric tons. It has vowed to have 20 to 30 percent of its international reserves in gold.
The WGC notes that seven central banks boosted their reserves in August. Kazakhstan was the leading buyer, adding 8 metric tons to its holdings and bringing its year-to-date increase to 32 metric tons. Turkey, Bulgaria, China, Uzbekistan, Ghana, Indonesia and the Czech Republic each added 2 metric tons. Russia was the only seller in August, divesting itself of 3 metric tons of gold; the WGC suggests its reduction was owed to its coin-minting program.
It wasn’t just central banks buying gold. Western investors helped drive record exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows of US$26 billion for the third quarter, with North American markets accounting for US$16.1 billion.
Total assets under management surged to US$472 billion, a 23 percent increase over the second quarter, with holdings rising to 3,838 metric tons, just shy of the 3,929 metric tons recorded in November 2020.
Why are investors interested in gold?
Mind Money CEO Julia Khandoshko suggested that geopolitics is a driving force behind gold’s record-breaking run, noting that tensions are high as the world becomes increasingly divided into “risk” and “stability” zones.
While geopolitics may be a primary factor, it’s far from the only one.
The third quarter saw declining yield curves, a weakening US dollar and a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed in September, all of which added tailwinds to the gold price. Looking forward, the expectation is that the Fed will make further rate cuts before the end of the year, which could further fuel a rising gold price.
‘The history of the last hundred years shows that gold grows confidently at low rates. Combine this with stubborn inflation, and we can say with confidence that it will create more space for gold’s price rise,” Khandoshko stated.
Additionally, there is an expectation that a weaker US dollar will help to keep the price of gold elevated. So far this year, the US Dollar Index has declined 8 percent.
“The US dollar is a critical component to what happens to gold, because gold is denominated in US dollars, so the weaker the US dollar, the stronger the commodity price. What we’re expecting to see over the next 12 to 24 months is continued devaluation of the US dollar, which means gold should continue to be stronger going forward,” he said.
Among the recent drags on the dollar is fear of a prolonged shutdown of the US federal government after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement to continue funding government agencies and employees.
In the aftermath of the shutdown, the US Dollar Index posted its worst week since July. In an October 3 Reuters article, Thierry Wizman, monetary strategist with Macquarie, suggests that a prolonged shutdown could have a significant impact on trust in the federal government and further impact the strength of the greenback.
Gold price forecast for 2025
Hodaly sees the factors behind gold’s price rise remaining in place for the foreseeable future.
“We are expecting this could go much higher, at least 10 to 20 percent higher in the near term,’ he said.
‘Nothing has changed with the demand outlook for gold and the projected weakness of the US dollar, and that’s what’s going to drive the commodity price higher,’ added the executive.
Gold equities are also expected to benefit as the rising price boosts their margins and share prices.
Leading producers such as Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM,NYSE:AEM), Newmont (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) and Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) have seen their share prices rise by over 100 percent in 2025.
The junior space has also been impacted, with PPX Mining (TSXV:PPX,OTC Pink:SNNGF) posting a year-to-date gain of 642 percent as of October 1, and San Lorenzo Gold (TSXV:SLG,OTC Pink:SNLGF) increasing 629 percent.
With gold now trading above US$4,000, the sector could attract renewed interest and offer new opportunities for investors. Those seeking to include gold or gold stocks in their portfolios might consider options ranging from the relative safety of ETFs and established producers to riskier assets at the development or exploration stages.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.